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Policy

Investment Policy

These are my current investment criteria. I will revise them when my thinking changes through actual investing.

Common

Separate business quality, price, and the decision to act now.

I do not trade simply because a stock rose or fell, because of my cost basis, or because cash is available. I prioritize business value and expected return from the current price, and I keep cash when there is no sufficiently attractive opportunity.

US Stocks

U.S. Stock Investment Policy

Evaluate every candidate using the same framework: business quality, price, expected return, and risk.

The foundation is medium- to long-term investing in high-quality companies. I compare the concentrated candidates using the same framework and make decisions based on business quality, the investment thesis, expected return from the current price, downside risk, and opportunity cost versus other candidates.

I begin with an absolute assessment: if I held the same amount in cash and owned none of the stock, would I still want to buy it at this price? Cost basis, unrealized gains or losses, unused capital, and portfolio weight are secondary inputs considered only after assessing business value and expected return from the current price.

When a stock is clearly undervalued and offers a better expected return than other candidates, I can deploy a meaningful amount based on conviction and downside risk. Equal weighting and a fixed number of holdings are not goals. I can concentrate capital in the most attractive opportunities and keep cash when none are compelling.

Holding period does not determine the exit. I can hold for weeks, months, or years as long as business value, the investment thesis, and expected return remain intact. If valuation or short-term overheating reduces expected return, I consider partial profit-taking or a larger reduction. Material deterioration in business value or a broken thesis can justify an exit.

The concentrated candidate universe is not a fixed cap. Promising emerging or high-growth companies can be added when they meet the same quality, financial, and expected-return standards, while deteriorating candidates can be removed or replaced. Labels such as top-tier core, core, turnaround, and theme/event remain evaluation attributes, not separate trading regimes.

What I look for

  • Are business quality and the investment thesis strong enough?
  • Is the current price attractive relative to business value?
  • Is expected return from the current price compelling?
  • Are downside and shared portfolio risks acceptable?
  • Is this a better use of capital than the other candidates?

Business quality × Current price × Expected return × Downside risk × Opportunity cost

Japan Stocks & All Country

Japanese Stock Swing Trading and Long-Term All Country Investing

Use individual Japanese stocks for swing trading, and keep long-term investing in the All Country fund.

I manage individual Japanese stocks as swing trades. Rather than speculate on short-term news, I look for temporary undervaluation in high-quality businesses and generally aim to realize gains over several weeks to several months. If a position takes longer, I still treat it as a swing position and reassess the thesis and expected return instead of reclassifying it as a long-term investment.

For long-term wealth building, I continue my existing NISA accumulation in eMAXIS Slim 全世界株式（オール・カントリー） and use the same fund for additional long-term purchases. I do not relabel a losing swing position as a long-term holding simply to avoid reassessing it.

When a Japanese-stock swing trade realizes a profit, I first account for unrecovered realized losses and profits already allocated. Of any newly accumulated net realized profit after taxes and costs, 50% goes to additional All Country purchases and the remaining 50% stays in the swing-trading pool. There is no allocation after a loss or when no net profit has been created.

I do not add merely to lower the average cost. I reassess business quality, earnings, financial strength, supply and demand, valuation, and potential catalysts, and ask whether I would buy the stock at the current price if I did not already own it. If the conditions are not attractive, I keep cash.

What I look for

  • Business quality: competitive advantage, earnings, financials, and cash flow
  • Undervaluation and expected return at the current price
  • A credible catalyst for a return toward fair value
  • Liquidity, required capital, and market positioning
  • Shared sector, interest-rate, and currency risks

Japanese stock swings × 50% of new net realized profit to All Country × Hold cash when conditions are weak

Record

What I record on this site

I record the date, quantity, price, and amount of each trade, together with what I was thinking at the time.

The goal is not to prove that I can predict short-term price moves. It is to preserve why I bought, what I expected, and what changes would make me reconsider the position.